No more manual cars by 2030, suggests data firm

New cars with manual transmissions will be no more come the end of the decade, according to new analysis by Vehicle Data Global (VDG) in the UK.

The automotive data provider said manual gearboxes accounted for just 13.7 per cent of the UK’s car market so far in 2026, citing a 92 per cent collapse in diesel’s market share since 2016.

The situation is somewhat similar here in Ireland, with the latest SIMI figures showing a 20.47 per cent market share year to date for manual transmissions, down over 15 per cent on 2024.

VDG said that while the shift towards hybrids and EVs had initially accelerated the decline of manuals, changing consumer preferences among internal combustion engine buyers were now also driving the trend.

It found that manual transmission share among petrol and diesel cars in the UK had decreased from 55 per cent in 2019 to 34 per cent in 2025, despite buyers still having a transmission choice in those segments.

The company said this indicated the decline was not solely linked to electrification or model mix changes, but also reflected broader consumer demand for automatic drivetrains.

VDG said growing development, certification and production costs could make continuing manual gearbox programmes economically unviable for manufacturers as volumes continue to fall, ultimately bringing market withdrawal by the end of the decade.

In the UK’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, diesel powertrains are still preferred while manual gearbox vans held 63 per cent of the market share in 2025, compared with fewer than one in five passenger cars.

Manual transmissions continue to lead the LCV market in Ireland, with a 63.22 per cent share so far in 2026. Automatic vans are gaining ground however, as manual gearboxes did hold a 74.54 per cent market share here only 24 months ago.