Survey points to positive rebound for Irish EV market
What a difference a year can make. This time last year the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market was heading into free-fall and did so more dramatically as each month passed, cumulating in a 25 per cent plunge for the year as a whole.
But a relatively good start to this year has restored a cautious optimism within the motor industry that more people will buy an electric car this year.
Automotive Publications sought a snapshot of opinion from experts whose job it is to judge the mood of potential buyers and plan accordingly.
What is clear from our survey is that there is not going to be a dramatic take-up of new electric cars any way soon. Not by most brands anyway. The majority of the brands in the survey sample say they are looking at clawing back volumes to where they stood at the end of 2023/ early 2024 and maybe a little bit more this year.
That would be a sizeable chunk in itself.
Looking ahead to next year, however, evokes more confidence of increased buying based on stability of pricing, the arrival of far more affordable BEVs and an up-turn of sorts in the values for secondhand electric cars.
The survey does not take the possible impact and uncertainty of tariffs into account nor the possibility of job losses arising from Donald Trump’s plans to target key aspects of our economy which would, of course, hit confidence and reduce major financial outlays such as new-car purchasing.
Nonetheless, the survey does underline the fact that, based on enquiries to garages, there is a growing sentiment among car owners that they are increasingly likely to buy an electric car this year and next.
It is also interesting to see how electric cars are, or are not, impacting on dealers’ aftersales business at this time.
THE QUESTIONS
- How do you think BEV sales generally will go this year? Have sales up to now met with your expectations?
- What percentage of your company’s total sales do you expect will be made up specifically by BEVs this year?
- And what sort of increase/decrease in BEVs do you see in your crystal ball for next year?
- Finally, how are electric cars impacting on your dealers’ aftersales?
THE ANSWERS
The Motoring Groups
Motor Distributors (Overview: Mercedes-Benz, BYD, smart # and Xpeng)
1. Sales generally: A big choice of BEV models currently constitutes our EV offering – from Mercedes-Benz EQ division, BYD, smart # and Xpeng. Our initial allocation of Xpeng G6 models are fully sold so our outlook for EV sales in the current year is very positive.
This is underpinned by the imminent arrival of further new all-electric models, including an all-electric Mercedes-Benz G-Class all-terrain ‘gelendewagen’ plus a new Sealion 7 from BYD and more.
2. BEV percentage of total sales: For MDL passenger car sales, across all our brands, we expect the EV share of our combined business to be in the region of 30pc this year.
3. Next year: Overall industry expectation is that the EV share will reach 16pc of the total market this year. Initial thoughts are the EV share would increase to 20pc in 2026.
4. Aftersales: Our after-sales workshops are busier than ever, and we are actively looking at ways to reduce our lead times.
Overall we don’t foresee any changes in the short-term, the transition from ICE to PHEV and BEV will happen at a steady pace over the next 10 years, with little change in our after-sales business.
Gowan Group (overview: Alfa Romeo, Peugeot, Honda, Citroen, DS, Opel, Fiat, Fiat Professional, Jeep).
1. General sales: Early indications are good. We have enjoyed an increase in BEV model sales. New electric models such as the Fiat 600 and Alfa Romeo Junior will prompt more growth. The Jeep Avenger ‘Freedom to Choose Electric’ offer has been well received.
2. BEV percentage of overall sales: We see our mix of BEVs in the passenger car range to be in the region of 25pc for this year.
3. Next year: We see a continued gradual increase in BEV sales for a number of reasons. Prices are starting to align closer with ICE alternatives, that barrier to buying a BEV is gone. The road to EV ownership is a learning curve and can be quite confusing for customers. As more people discover more about BEVs and find out more about the benefits such as reduced fuel costs and the ease of home charging, demand will continue to grow.
4. Aftersales: With electric vehicles having fewer moving parts, it is certainly going to change things for after sales business, bringing both challenges and opportunities.
The need for routine part replacement for items like oil filters and timing belts will be gone, but others will remain like tyres and brakes, the quality of which are vital for electric driving.
Software, battery optimisation and connected services are going to be more important, which requires regular and detailed training.
We have invested heavily in our state-of-the-art training facility, the Gowan Academy, to ensure that the technicians in all our brands’ dealer networks have the core skills needed to provide quality after-sales support to our EV customers.
Volkswagen Group (overview: Audi, Volkswagen passenger Cars, Volkswagen commercial vehicles, SEAT, CUPRA, Skoda.)
1. Sales generally: Based on the results of an independent survey commissioned by Volkswagen Group Ireland at the end of last year that showed that an overwhelming 85 per cent of BEV owners were happy with their vehicles and planned to stay electric when it came to buying their next vehicle, we are confident the demand is there. This has been borne out in total new-car sales for the start of the year.
2. BEV percentage of sales: We are forecasting sales of electrified vehicles (BEV and PHEV models) to increase by 35 per cent in 2025. In 2024, Volkswagen Group had 17 fully electric vehicles across six brands. Our product offering will expand further in 2025 with the addition of new models, including the CUPRA Tavascan, Volkswagen ID.2all, Audi A6 e-tron and Skoda Elroq.
3. Next year: We expect EV sales to increase as adoption accelerates and the infrastructure in place to support them grows. Mainstream car buyers can see the benefits of electric vehicles and they understand this is the way the automotive sector is heading.
4. Aftersales: Last year was a record year for our aftersales division in terms of sales. We are not anticipating any slowdown in aftersales activity this decade. It is true that electric powertrains have fewer moving parts, but vehicles still need to be maintained to stay on the road.
Individual Brands Surveyed
AUDI
1. General sales: The BEV market is enjoying a positive trajectory and we continue with our product offensive. Most recently, we launched the all-new fully electric Audi A6 e-tron recently.
2. BEV percentage of sales: We project up to a quarter of all models sold in 2025 will be either a PHEV or fully electric BEV.
3. Next year: There continues to be a strong market for EV models globally and it appears that the demand is consistent. We expect to see demand continue to grow.
4. Aftersales: Since the introduction of Audi’s first BEV, the e-tron SUV, back in 2019 Audi aftersales departments continue to implement the necessary steps to support the rollout of BEV technology.
The Audi dealer network train and upskill their highly certified technicians on a regular basis. All new Audi electric vehicles have predictive maintenance built in which will inform customers about wear and tear items that will need to be replaced (outside of normal service schedules).
CUPRA
1. Sales generally: There are strong indications of a BEV rebound in 2025. Total BEV registrations are up which reflects renewed interest in BEVs among consumers.
2. BEV percentage of sales: CUPRA BEVs are up 128pc on the corresponding period last year. BEVs now account for 35pc of CUPRA sales YTD (up from 20pc last year). We anticipate the BEV percentage to stay around 35pc for the year.
3. Next year: It is difficult to predict now. The strong start in early 2025, along with an expanding model range and improving infrastructure, suggests that BEV sales will rebound through 2025 and there will be further growth in 2026.
4. Aftersales: Like with all change, dealers are actively adapting their after-sales services to accommodate the growing number of electric vehicles on the roads. That involves investing in technician training, upgrading service infrastructure and placing greater emphasis on educating customers about EV ownership so that they can provide comprehensive support to their evolving customer base.
KIA
1. Sales generally: The BEV market is currently at 16pc versus 13pc last year. There is no doubt the market is growing and will continue to do so.
2. BEV percentage of sales: Kia are currently at around 30pc BEV mix versus the market at 16pc or so and we will continue to out-perform the market this year.
3. Next year: Kia will launch the EV2, EV4 and EV5 next year; other brands will launch a number of new EVs also so we expect the BEV market to continue to grow in 2026.
4. Aftersales: With the exception of additional training requirements, we are not seeing any unforeseen impacts.
MG
1. General sales: BEV sales have met with our expectations and are showing solid growth compared to last year’s dip. We expect the market share for BEVs to finish between 16pc and 17pc of total passenger car registrations this year, which would be in line with current trends and industry expectations.
2. BEV percentage of overall sales: We expect approximately 50pc of our sales this year to be made up of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), particularly with the addition of new fully electric models to our range.
3. Next year: We believe BEV market share will continue to grow and could represent around 20pc of total passenger car sales in calendar year 2026, reflecting ongoing consumer interest and model availability.
4. Aftersales: It’s still too early to see a significant impact. Currently, our dealers maintain a wide portfolio of products across various powertrains, so EVs are not yet having a notable effect on their aftersales business.
NISSAN
1. Sales generally: The 2025 BEV market is showing signs of recovery from the impact of the pricing instability from early 2024.
We expect the recovery of the BEV market to continue for 2025 with 16pc-18pc of the overall market being BEV.
2. BEV percentage of sales: Our expected BEV sales for 2025 will be approximately 16pc of our overall passenger sales volume. The end of sales for the LEAF is impacting this number. Leaf is now sold out and we will only have Ariya as our EV model for the remainder of the year. New Leaf is expected to be launched later this year for the 2026 market.
3. Next year: In general, we would expect the upward trajectory to continue in 2026. In particular, given the increasing enquiries we are seeing for BEVs along with greater pricing stability and the influx of very competitively priced smaller EVs, making entry into the BEV market more affordable for consumers.
4. Aftersales: Not available at time of publication.
OPEL
1. Sales generally: Sales are rising again; there is less resistance. Secondhands have reached a price point where they are good value. We have had great success with BEV LCVs with the Vivaro van and have been Number One again this year.
2. BEV percentage of sales: Currently running at 9pc. Grandland BEV launched in February and Frontera with BEV in probably June. Outlook for the year: 12.5pc.
3. Next year: It will continue to grow, we would hope to hit 17pc.
4. Aftersales: No big feedback yet. However, running cost and service costs are lower. BEVs as a percentage of the overall car parc from the last 10 years still makes up a small percentage.
PEUGEOT
1. Sales generally: The market trend remains strong. We anticipate this positive momentum will continue throughout 2025.
2. BEV percentage of sales: We’ve had exceptional growth in electric vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of almost 300pc.
Recent launches of electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs have positioned us strongly to meet rising demand. Currently, 25pc of our-7 seater 5008 sales are electric, and we anticipate this momentum will continue.
3. Next year: We anticipate a higher level of EV adoption, driven by improvements in national charging infrastructure, longer-range battery options, and a demise of ICE vehicle production.
4. Aftersales: We have made significant investments in EV-specific training to ensure expert aftersales support.
This shift has also created new business opportunities, such as dedicated tyre programs and battery maintenance, replacing traditional oil and filter changes on ICE vehicles.
SKODA
1. Sales generally: We are on the record last year by claiming BEV sales would bounce back this year to 2023 levels. And so they have and more (19pc ahead of the same period in 2023). So BEV sales are going better than we expected
2. BEV percentage of total sales: About 10pc of total sales. It would be more but the Elroq and Enyaq have not arrived and will miss the Jan-Mar sales peak.
3. Next year: We will see a significant increase next year assuming we have supply of Elroq and Enyaq
4. Aftersales: We have not had significant EV volumes (due to supply challenges over last three years) to provide an accurate analysis. However, feedback from dealer network suggests battery reliability is excellent and the build quality of Enyaq is comparable, or in some cases better, than our ICE models.
TOYOTA
1. Sales generally: It’s encouraging to see electrified sales increase this year, and that more than half the sales in 2025 to date are made up of electrified powertrains, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric.
2. BEV percentage of overall sales: We expect BEV sales to continue at the current trajectory, and still see hybrid as being the dominant powertrain.
3. Next year: We forecast that BEVs will increase in a stable and sustained way over the coming few years. We will launch the new all-electric Toyota C-HR+ later this year with up to 600kms range. We will have introduced six new BEVs by 2026.
4. Aftersales: We don’t see a huge change to date, as the majority of our sales have been hybrid in the past few years.
And others…
BMW/ MINI and RENAULT/ DACIA were also upbeat and positive in expected increases in BEV buying this year and next, but due to other pressures were not in a position to provide specific details within the timeframe of the survey.
Thanks to all for the effort.
